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[Çؿܾᱸº¸°í¼­] EDB, "Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ¹°¡¤¿¡³ÊÁö º¹ÇÕ´ÜÁö ÅõÀÚ ÇÊ¿ä"
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[Çؿܾᱸº¸°í¼­] EDB, "Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ¹°¡¤¿¡³ÊÁö º¹ÇÕ´ÜÁö ÅõÀÚ ÇÊ¿ä"

 

EDB(À¯¶ó½Ã¾Æ°³¹ßÀº), Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ¹°¡¤¿¡³ÊÁö º¹ÇÕ´ÜÁö ÅõÀÚ º¸°í¼­ ¹ß°£
The EDB publishes a report titled Investment in the Water and Energy Complex of Central Asia

 

 

À¯¶ó½Ã¾Æ°³¹ßÀºÇà(EDB ; Eurasian Development Bank)ÀÇ ºÐ¼®°¡µéÀº Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ ¹°°ú ¿¡³ÊÁö º¹ÇÕ´ÜÁö¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÅõÀÚ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ »ó¼¼ÇÑ ¿¬±¸¸¦ ¼öÇàÇß´Ù. 30³â µ¿¾È ±¹°¡µéÀÌ ¿¡³ÊÁö ÀÚ¸³ Á¤Ã¥À» ÃßÁøÇϸ鼭 Áö¿ª Çù·ÂÀÌ ¾àÈ­µÇ¾ú´Ù. µ¿½Ã¿¡ Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ±¹°¡ÀÇ ÃÑ ¿¡³ÊÁö ¿ë·®Àº 1992³â 42.2GW(±â°¡¿ÍÆ®)¿¡¼­ 2020³â 53.8GW·Î Áõ°¡Çß´Ù.

 

Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ¹° ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö º¹ÇÕ´ÜÁöÀÇ ¿¡³ÊÁö ºÎ¹®¿¡¼­ È®ÀÎµÈ ÅõÀÚ Á¦¾ÈÀº ¿©ÀüÈ÷ ±× Á¤Ã¥À» µû¸£°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¹° ºÎ¹®¿¡¼­ Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ ¹ßÀüÀº ¼öÀÚ¿ø °í°¥°ú Á¦ÇÑµÈ ÅõÀÚÀÇ ¸Æ¶ô¿¡¼­ ÀϾ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ¹°°ú ¿¡³ÊÁö ´ÜÁöÀÇ °ø°ø À̴ϼÅƼºê¸¦ À§ÇÑ °¡Àå Áß¿äÇÑ Àç¿øÀº ´ÙÀÚ°£ ±ÝÀ¶ ±â°üÀ¸·Î ÇöÀç 102¾ï ´Þ·¯ ±Ô¸ðÀÇ 104°³ ÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ®¸¦ ¼öÇàÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù.

 

Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ ¹°°ú ¿¡³ÊÁö º¹ÇÕ´ÜÁöÀÇ ÅõÀÚ Á¾¸ñ ±¸Á¶´Â ¹°°ú ¿¡³ÊÁö ´ÜÁöÀÇ Á¶È­µÇÁö ¾ÊÀº °³¹ß·Î ÀÎÇØ ÃÖÀûÀÌ ¾Æ´Ï´Ù. Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ ¹°°ú ¿¡³ÊÁö ´ÜÁö¿¡¼­ Çù·ÂÀ» ÃËÁøÇϸé Áö¿ªÀÇ ¹°°ú ¿¡³ÊÁö ±ÕÇüÀ» °³¼±ÇÏ°í ÅõÀÚ ±Ý¾×°ú ±¸Á¶¸¦ ÃÖÀûÈ­ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù.

 

The Eurasian Development Bank¡¯s analysts have conducted a detailed study of investments in the water and energy complex of Central Asia. For three decades, regional cooperation has been weakening as the countries pursued energy self-sufficiency policies. At the same time, the aggregate energy capacity of the Central Asian countries increased from 42.2 GW in 1992 to 53.8 GW in 2020.

 

The investment proposals identified in the energy segment of the Central Asian water and energy complex still follow that policy. In the water segment, developments in Central Asia are taking place in the context of depleting water resources and limited investment. The most important source of finance for public initiatives in the water and energy complex are multilateral financial institutions, which are currently implementing 104 projects worth US $10.2 billion.

 

The structure of the investment portfolio in the Central Asian water and energy complex is suboptimal because of uncoordinated development of water and energy complex. Promoting cooperation in the water and energy complex of Central Asia would improve the region¡¯s water and energy balance and optimise the amount and structure of investments.

 

À¯¶ó½Ã¾Æ°³¹ßÀºÇà(EDB ; Eurasian Development Bank)Àº 'Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ ¹°°ú ¿¡³ÊÁö ´ÜÁö¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÅõÀÚ(Investment in the Water and Energy Complex of Central Asia.)'¶ó´Â º¸°í¼­¸¦ ¹ßÇ¥Çß´Ù. ÀÌ º¸°í¼­´Â Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ 5°³±¹(Ä«ÀÚÈ彺ź, Å°¸£±â½º½ºÅº, ŸÁöÅ°½ºÅº, Åõ¸£Å©¸Þ´Ï½ºÅº, ¿ìÁŰ½ºÅº)ÀÌ µ¶¸³ÇÑ Áö 30³âÀÌ µÈ Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ ¹° ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö º¹ÇÕ´ÜÁö¸¦ ºÐ¼®ÇÏ°í ¹°¡¤¿¡³ÊÁö º¹ÇÕ´ÜÁö¿¡¼­ÀÇ Çù·ÂÀ» Æò°¡Çß´Ù.

 

ºÐ¼®°¡µéÀº ¶ÇÇÑ ¹° ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö ¹®Á¦ ÇØ°á¿¡¼­ Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ±¹°¡µéÀÌ Á÷¸éÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Â ÁÖ¿ä °úÁ¦¸¦ ÆľÇÇÏ°í, ÁÖ¿ä Âü°¡±¹µéÀÇ ÅõÀÚ Àü·« ¹× Á¤ºÎ ÇÁ·Î±×·¥ ºÐ¼® µî Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ ¹° ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö ´ÜÁö¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÇöÀç ÁøÇà ÁßÀÎ ÅõÀÚ ÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ®¿Í ÇâÈÄ ÅõÀÚ ÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ®¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ½ÉÃþ ¿¬±¸¸¦ ½Ç½ÃÇß´Ù. À̺¸°í¼­´Â ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ ºÐ¼®À» Åä´ë·Î 2030³â±îÁö ¿¡³ÊÁö ¹× ¼öµµ ±â¹Ý½Ã¼³¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÀÚº» ÅõÀÚÀÇ Çʿ伺À» ¿¹ºñÀûÀ¸·Î ÃßÁ¤ÇÑ´Ù.

 

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has published a report titled Investment in the Water and Energy Complex of Central Asia. The report analyses Central Asia¡¯s water and energy complex after 30 years of independence of the five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) and assesses their cooperation in the water and energy complex.

 

The analysts have also identified the key challenges facing the Central Asian countries in addressing water and energy issues and conducted an in-depth study of the ongoing and prospective investment projects in Central Asia¡¯s water and energy complex, including an analysis of the key players¡¯ investment strategies and government programmes. Based on this analysis, the report preliminarily estimates the need for capital investment in the energy and water infrastructure until 2030.


ÀÌ º¸°í¼­´Â ¹° ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö ´ÜÁö¿¡ ´ëÇÑ Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ±¹°¡µéÀÇ Çù·ÂÀÌ ºÎÁ·ÇÏ°í °á°úÀûÀ¸·Î ±â¼úÀû¡¤°æÁ¦Àû ÇØ°áÃ¥ÀÇ ±¸ÇöÀÌ »ó´çÇÑ °æÁ¦Àû ¼Õ½ÇÀ» ÃÊ·¡ÇÑ´Ù°í ÁÖÀåÇß´Ù.

 

¡¤º¸°í¼­ ÀÚ·á¿¡ µû¸£¸é ¿¬°£ °æÁ¦Àû ÇÇÇØ¿Í ¹Ì½ÇÇö °æÁ¦Àû ÀÌÀÍÀº 45¾ï ´Þ·¯·Î Áö¿ª GDP(±¹³»ÃÑ»ý»ê)ÀÇ 1.5%¿¡ ´ÞÇϸç, ³ó¾÷°ú ¿¡³ÊÁö ºÎ¹®¿¡¼­ÀÇ ¼Õ½ÇÀº °¢°¢ Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ GDPÀÇ 0.6%, 0.9%·Î Ãß»êÇß´Ù.

 

¡¤EDB(À¯¶ó½Ã¾Æ°³¹ßÀºÇà)´Â ¼öµµ ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö ´ÜÁöÀÇ ºñÈ¿À²¼ºÀ» ÇؼÒÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ 5³â µ¿¾È ÀÌ Áö¿ªÀÇ GDP¿¡ 7%(220¾ï ´Þ·¯)¸¦ Ãß°¡ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í ÀáÁ¤ ÃßÁ¤ÇÕ´Ï´Ù. ÀÌ Áö¿ªÀÇ °æÁ¦´Â 5³â ¾È¿¡ 1.5% ´õ ¼ºÀåÇÒ °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹»óÇß´Ù.

 

¡¤Àå±âÀû °üÁ¡(2050³â±îÁö)¿¡¼­ ¼¼°èÀºÇà(World Bank)ÀÇ Ã߻꿡 µû¸£¸é, ÀϹÝÀûÀÎ ºñÁî´Ï½º ½Ã³ª¸®¿ÀÀÇ ºñ¿ë°ú Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ ¹° ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö º¹ÇÕ´ÜÁöÀÇ °­·ÂÇÑ Çù·ÂÀ» ¿¹»óÇÏ´Â ½Ã³ª¸®¿ÀÀÇ ÀÌÀÍ°£ÀÇ Â÷ÀÌ´Â GDPÀÇ 20%¿¡ À̸¦ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù°í ¿¹»óÇß´Ù.

 

The report argues that the lack of cooperation among the Central Asian countries in the water and energy complex and, consequently, the implementing technical and economic solutions result in significant economic losses.

 

¡¤According to the reported data, annual economic damage and unrealised economic benefits are estimated at as high as US $4.5 billion, which is 1.5% of the regional GDP. Losses in agriculture and the energy sector are estimated at 0.6% and 0.9% of Central Asia¡¯s GDP, respectively.

 

¡¤The EDB preliminarily estimates that remedying inefficiencies in the water and energy complex might add 7% (US $22 billion) to the region¡¯s GDP over a five-year horizon. The region¡¯s economies will grow by an additional 1.5 p.p. in five years (compared with the business-as-usual scenario).

 

¡¤In the longer term perspective (up to 2050), according to the World Bank estimates,   the difference between the costs of the business-as-usual scenario and the benefits of the scenario envisaging stronger cooperation in Central Asia¡¯s water and energy complex might reach 20% of GDP.


2000³â´ë Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ ¹° ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö ´ÜÁöÀÇ Çù·ÂÀÌ ±Þ°ÝÈ÷ ¾àÈ­µÇ¸é¼­ ¿¡³ÊÁö ºÎ¹®ÀÇ ºÎ´ãÀÌ Å©°Ô Áõ°¡Çß´Ù. ¼ø Àü·Â ¼Òºñ´Â 1999³â ¼Ò·Ã ÀÌÈÄ ÃÖÀúÄ¡ÀÎ 108.1TWh(Å׶ó¿ÍÆ®½Ã)¿¡¼­ 2020³â 184.9TWh·Î 71.1% ±ÞÁõÇß´Ù. ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ Çö»óÀº ³ôÀº Àα¸ Áõ°¡»Ó¸¸ ¾Æ´Ï¶ó ¿¡³ÊÁö Áý¾àÀûÀÎ »ê¾÷¿¡¼­ °¡¼ÓÈ­µÈ ¼ºÀåÀ̶ó´Â ¸Æ¶ô¿¡¼­ ¹ß»ýÇß´Ù.

 

»óÈ£ Æò±Õ ¿¬°£ Àü·Â È帧ÀÌ Å©°Ô °¨¼ÒÇϸ鼭 Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ±¹°¡µéÀº Àû±ØÀûÀ¸·Î »õ·Î¿î ¹ßÀü ¿ë·®À» ±¸ÃàÇÏ°í ±âÁ¸ ¹ßÀü ¿ë·®À» ¾÷±×·¹À̵åÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. ÀÌ´Â Áõ°¡ÇÏ´Â ±¹³» ¼¼´ë¸¦ ÅëÇØ ¼ö¿ä¸¦ ÃæÁ·½Ãų ¼ö ÀÖ°Ô Çß´Ù. »ç½Ç, Áö³­ 20³â µ¿¾È ÀÌ ³ª¶óµéÀÇ ¿¡³ÊÁö ½Ã½ºÅÛÀº ÀÚ±ÞÀÚÁ·ÇÏ°Ô µÇ¾ú´Ù.


[±×¸² 1] Á߾Ӿƽþƿ¡ ¼³Ä¡µÈ ¿ë·®  (´ÜÀ§ : MW)

 

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¡ØÃâó : EIA(¹Ì±¹ ¿¡³ÊÁöÁ¤º¸Ã») µ¥ÀÌÅÍ ¹× ÇÇÄ¡ ¼Ö·ç¼Ç(Fitch Solution) ÃßÁ¤Ä¡.


The drastic weakening of cooperation in Central Asia¡¯s water and energy complex in the 2000s coincided with a significant growth of the load on the energy sector. Net electricity consumption soared by 71.1% from a post-Soviet low of 108.1 TWh in 1999 to 184.9 TWh in 2020. This occurred in the context of accelerated growth in the energy-intensive industries as well as high population growth.

 

With a significant decline in mutual average annual power flows, the Central Asian countries have been actively building new and upgrading existing generating capacities. This has made it possible to meet the increasing demand with in-country generation. In fact, the countries¡¯ energy systems have become self-sufficient over the past two decades.


Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ ¿¡³ÊÁö ºÎ¹®Àº ÀÌ Áö¿ª¿¡¼­ ½ÃÇàµÇ´Â Á¤ºÎ ÇÁ·Î±×·¥ÀÇ ¸Æ¶ô¿¡¼­ °³¹ßµÇ¾ú´Ù. ¿ë¼ö ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö ÅõÀÚ»ç¾÷ÀÇ ¼ÒÀ¯±¸Á¶¿Í ±¸Ã¼ÀûÀÎ ¼º°ÝÀ» °¨¾ÈÇÒ ¶§ Á¤ºÎ°¡ ¹° ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö ´ÜÁö °³¹ß¿¡ ÇÙ½ÉÀûÀÎ ¿ªÇÒÀ» ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. Á¤ºÎ¿Í ±¹¿µ±â¾÷Àº °³¼º°ø´Ü¿¡ ´ëÇÑ °³¹ß °³³ä ¼ö¸³ ¹× ±¸Çö, °ü¼¼ Á¤Ã¥ ¼ö¸³, ÀçÁ¤ Ãâó °Ë»ö, ÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ® ±¸Çö µî¿¡ Àû±ØÀûÀ¸·Î Âü¿©ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù.

 

2020³â ¿ë¼ö ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö ÅõÀÚÀÇ ¼±µÎ ÁÖÀÚ´Â Ä«ÀÚÈ彺ź(GDPÀÇ 1.6%)°ú ¿ìÁŰ½ºÅº(GDPÀÇ 2.4%)À̾ú´Ù. ŸÁöÅ°½ºÅº°ú Å°¸£±â½º½ºÅºÀÇ ¼öµµ ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö ´ÜÁö¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÀÚº» ÅõÀÚ´Â °¢°¢ 5¾ï7õ700¸¸ ´Þ·¯(GDPÀÇ 6.3%)¿Í 8õ900¸¸ ´Þ·¯(GDPÀÇ 1.2%)¿¡ ´ÞÇß´Ù. ŸÁöÅ°½ºÅºÀÇ ¿¹»ê Á¦¾àÀ¸·Î ÀÎÇØ Á¤ºÎ´Â ¿ÜºÎ Â÷ÀÔ±ÝÀ¸·Î Àû±ØÀûÀÎ °ø°ø ÅõÀÚ Á¤Ã¥À» ÆìÁö ¸øÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù. Å°¸£±â½º½ºÅºÀÇ ¿ë¼ö ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö ÅõÀÚ ¼öÁØÀÌ ³·Àº °ÍÀº Á¤ºÎ ¼öÀÔÀÇ Á¦ÇÑ°ú ´õºÒ¾î ¹ßÀü ºñ¿ëÀ» °¨´çÇÏÁö ¸øÇÏ´Â ³·Àº °ü¼¼ ¶§¹®À̾ú´Ù.

 

The energy sector in Central Asia developed in the context of government programmes implemented in the region. Given the ownership structure and specific nature of water and energy investment projects, the governments play a key role in the development of the water and energy complex. The governments and state-owned companies are actively involved in formulating and implementing development concepts for the complex; setting tariff policies; searching for sources of finance; and implementing projects, among other activities.

 

In 2020, the leaders in water and energy investments were Kazakhstan (US $2.783 billion, or 1.6% of GDP) and Uzbekistan (US $1.377 billion, or 2.4% of GDP). In Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, capital investments in the water and energy complex amounted to US $507 million (6.3% of GDP) and US $89 million (1.2% of GDP), respectively. Budgetary constraints in Tajikistan have not precluded the government from implementing an active public investment policy with external borrowings. The low levels of water and energy investments in Kyrgyzstan were due to limited government revenues as well as low tariffs that do not cover the cost of electricity generation.

 

´ëºÎºÐÀÇ Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ±¹°¡¿¡¼­ ¹°°ú ¿¡³ÊÁö º¹ÇÕ´ÜÁö°¡ ¹Î°£ ¹× ¿Ü±¹ÀÎ ÅõÀÚÀڵ鿡°Ô´Â ÃæºÐÈ÷  ¸Å·ÂÀûÀÌÁö ¾Ê±â ¶§¹®¿¡ °ø°ø»ç¾÷(public initiatives)À» À§ÇÑ Áß¿äÇÑ Àç¿øÀº ´ÙÀÚ°³¹ßÀºÇà(MDB ; multilateral development banks)ÀÌ´Ù. ÇöÀç±îÁö 104°³ÀÇ 102¾ï ´Þ·¯ ±Ô¸ðÀÇ ÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ®°¡ ÁøÇà ÁßÀÌ´Ù. ÁÖ¿ä ±ÝÀ¶»ç´Â Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ Àüü MDB ±ÝÀ¶ÀÇ 32.7%¿¡ ÇØ´çÇÏ´Â 33¾ï ´Þ·¯ÀÇ ÀÚ±ÝÀ» º¸À¯ÇÑ À¯·´ºÎÈï°³¹ßÀºÇà(EBRD ; European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)ÀÌ´Ù. ÀÌ¾î ¼¼°èÀºÇà(World Bank)ÀÌ 30¾ï ´Þ·¯(29.6%)·Î, ¾Æ½Ã¾Æ°³¹ßÀºÇà(ADB ; Asian Development Bank)°¡ 26¾ï ´Þ·¯(26.2%)·Î µÚ¸¦ À̾ú´Ù.

 

À¯¶ó½Ã¾Æ°³¹ßÀºÇà(EDB ; Eurasian Development Bank)¿Í À¯¶ó½Ã¾Æ¾ÈÁ¤È­°³¹ß±â±Ý(EFSD ; Eurasian  stabilization  Fund), À¯·´ÅõÀÚÀºÇà(EIB ; ropean Investment Bank), ¾Æ½Ã¾ÆÀÎÇÁ¶óÅõÀÚÀºÇà(AIIB ; an Infrastructure Investment Bank)´Â ¸ðµÎ 12¾ï ´Þ·¯(11.5%)¸¦ Â÷ÁöÇÑ´Ù. ¡®Äڷγª19(COVID-19)¡¯´ëÀ¯ÇàÀÇ ¿©ÆÄ¿¡µµ ºÒ±¸ÇÏ°í MDB(´ÙÀÚ°³¹ßÀºÇà)´Â Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ ¹° ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö º¹ÇÕ´ÜÁö¿¡ Áö¼ÓÀûÀ¸·Î ÀÚ±ÝÀ» Á¶´ÞÇß´Ù. 2020³â¿¡´Â 24°³ ¹° ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö ÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ®¿¡ ´ëÇØ 18¾ï ´Þ·¯ ±Ô¸ðÀÇ ÀÚ±Ý Áö¿øÀ» ½ÂÀÎÇß´Ù.


[±×¸² 2] Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ¹° ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö ÅõÀÚ ÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ® ÀÚ±ÝÁ¶´Þ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ MDBÀÇ Âü¿©

 

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¡ØÃâó : 2021³â 4¿ù 1ÀÏ ÇöÀç MDBÀÇ °ø°³ µ¥ÀÌÅ͸¦ ±â¹ÝÀ¸·Î ÀÛ¼ºÀÚÀÇ °è»ê.

 

As in most Central Asian countries the water and energy complex is insufficiently attractive for private and foreign investors, an important source of finance for public initiatives are multilateral development banks (MDBs). So far, 104 projects worth US $10.2 billion are in progress. The leading financier is the EBRD with a portfolio of US $3.3 billion, or 32.7% of total MDB financing in Central Asia. It is followed by the World Bank with US $3.0 billion (29.6%) and the ADB with US $2.6 billion (26.2%).

 

The EDB and EFSD, the EIB, and the AIIB together account for US $1.2 billion (11.5%). Despite struggling with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, MDBs continued to finance Central Asia¡¯s water and energy complex. In 2020, they approved financing for 24 water and energy projects to the tune of US $1.8 billion.


Àå±âÀûÀ¸·Î EDB ºÐ¼®°¡µéÀº Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ GDP ¼ºÀå·üÀÌ »ó´ëÀûÀ¸·Î ³ôÀ» °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹»óÇÑ´Ù. ÀÌ´Â »ó´çÇÑ Àα¸ Áõ°¡(UN ¿¹Ãø¿¡ µû¸£¸é Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ Àα¸ÀÇ ÁßÀ§ ¼ºÀå·üÀÌ ÇöÀç 7õ440¸¸ ¸í¿¡¼­ 2050³â¿¡´Â 9õ¸¸ ¸íÀ¸·Î Áõ°¡ ¿¹»ó)¿Í Á¦Á¶¾÷, ¼­ºñ½º¾÷, ³ó¾÷ÀÇ ¹ßÀü°ú °ü·ÃÀÌ ÀÖÀ» °ÍÀÌ´Ù.

 

ÀÌ¿¡ µû¶ó ÀÌ¹Ì ¸¶¸ðÀ²ÀÌ ³ôÀº ±âÁ¸ ¹ßÀü½Ã¼³°ú ±×¸®µå(grids)¿¡ ºÎÇÏ°¡ Ãß°¡µÇ´Â µî Àü·Â ¼Òºñ°¡ ´Ã¾î³¯ Àü¸ÁÀÌ´Ù. ¹Ý¸é, Áö¿ªÀÇ Áö¸®Àû °í¸³°ú °æ°è °­¡¤ÇÏõ À¯¿ªÀÇ Æó¼â¼º, ±âÈĺ¯È­ Áõ°¡ µîÀ» °¨¾ÈÇÒ ¶§, ´õ ¸¹Àº ¹° ¼Òºñ°¡ ÁÖ°£(inter-state) ¹° »ç¿ëÀ» °áÁ¤ÇÏ´Â ÁÖ¿ä ¿ä¼Ò°¡ µÇ°í ÀÖÀ¸¸ç, µû¶ó¼­ ±¹°¡°£ °ü°è¸¦ °áÁ¤ÇÏ´Â ¿äÀÎÀÌ µÇ°í ÀÖ´Ù.

 

Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ ¹° ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö ´ÜÁöÀÇ ¿¡³ÊÁö ºÎ¹®¿¡¼­ È®ÀÎµÈ ÃÑ ÅõÀÚ Á¦¾ÈÀº ÇöÀç 528¾ï ´Þ·¯·Î Ãß»êµÈ´Ù. ÀÌ Áß ¹ßÀüÀº 454¾ï ´Þ·¯(86.0%), ±×¸®µå´Â 74¾ï ´Þ·¯(14.0%)¸¦ Â÷ÁöÇÑ´Ù. ÁÖ¿ä »ç¾÷ ¸ñÇ¥´Â ¿¡³ÊÁö¿ø ´Ùº¯È­¿Í ±âÁ¸ ¹ßÀü¼³ºñ È®ÃæÀ» ÅëÇÑ Àü·Â °ø±Þ È®º¸, ½Å±Ô Àü·Â½ÃÀå ÁøÃâ, ±¹³» Àü·Â ¿¬°è °­È­ µîÀÌ´Ù.


[±×¸² 3] Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ¿¡³ÊÁö ºÎ¹®¿¡¼­ È®ÀÎµÈ ÅõÀÚ Á¦¾ÈÀÇ °¡Ä¡ ¹× ±¸Á¶
 (´ÜÀ§ : ¹ÌÈ­ ¹é¸¸ ´Þ·¯, 2021³â 4¿ù 1ÀÏ ±âÁØ)

 

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¡ØÃâó : ÀÌ¿ë °¡´ÉÇÑ °ø°³ µ¥ÀÌÅ͸¦ ±â¹ÝÀ¸·Î ÀÛ¼ºÀÚÀÇ °è»ê.

 

In the longer term, EDB analysts expect GDP growth to remain relatively high in Central Asia. This will be associated with significant population growth (based on the UN forecast, the median growth of the Central Asia¡¯s population will increase from the current 74.4 million to 90.0 million in 2050) and with the development of manufacturing, services, and agriculture.

 

As a result, the region is expected to boost electricity consumption, adding loads on the existing generation facilities and grids with already high rates of wear and tear. On the other hand, given the region¡¯s geographical isolation and the respective closedness of its transboundary river basins, as well as growing climate change, greater water consumption is becoming the main factor determining inter-state water uses and, therefore, inter-state relations in the region.

 

The identified total investment proposals in the energy segment of Central Asia¡¯s water and energy complex are currently estimated at US $52.8 billion. Of these, generation accounts for US $45.4 billion (86.0%) and grids US $7.4 billion (14.0%). The key project objectives are to secure power supplies through the diversification of energy sources and the expansion of conventional generation facilities, access new electricity markets, and strengthen in-country electricity connections.


ÇâÈÄ 10³â µ¿¾È °èȹµÈ ÅõÀÚ ÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ®´Â ¼Òºñ Áõ°¡¿¡µµ ºÒ±¸ÇÏ°í ÀÌ Áö¿ªÀÇ Àü·Â ºÎÁ·À» ¹æÁöÇÏ´Â µ¥ µµ¿òÀÌ µÉ °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹»óµÈ´Ù. ÀÌ Áö¿ªÀÇ À׿© Àü·Â »ý»ê·®Àº 2020³â 37.2TWh¿¡¼­ 2030³â 45.6TWh·Î Áõ°¡ÇÏ¿© ´õ ¸¹Àº Àü·ÂÀ» ¼öÃâÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ°Ô µÇ°í À׿© ¹°·®À» ¾îµð¿¡ ÆǸÅÇÒÁö¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ¹®Á¦°¡ Á¦±âµÉ °ÍÀ¸·Î ¿¹»óµÈ´Ù.

 

¸ðµç Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ±¹°¡¿¡¼­ È®ÀÎµÈ ÅõÀÚ ÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ®´Â ´ëºÎºÐ ±¹°¡ °æÁ¦ÀÇ ¿ä±¸¸¦ ÃæÁ·ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ» ¸ñÇ¥·Î ÇÏ°í Áö¿ª ÀÌÀÍÀ» ¹Ýµå½Ã °í·ÁÇÏÁö´Â ¾Ê´Â´Ù. ÀÌ´Â ¹° ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö ´ÜÁöÀÇ Á¶Á¤µÇÁö ¾ÊÀº °³¹ßÀÇ °á°úÀÌ´Ù. Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ ¹°°ú ¿¡³ÊÁö º¹ÇÕ´ÜÁö¿¡¼­ Çù·ÂÀ» ÃËÁøÇϸé Áö¿ªÀÇ ¹°°ú ¿¡³ÊÁö ±ÕÇüÀ» °³¼±ÇÏ°í ÅõÀÚ ±Ý¾×°ú ±¸Á¶¸¦ ÃÖÀûÈ­ÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ´Ù.

 

º¸°í¼­´Â ¾Æ¶öÇØ À¯¿ª¿¡ ÀÖ´Â Áß¾Ó¾Æ½Ã¾Æ ±¹°¡µéÀÇ Æ¯Â¡Àº »çȸ°æÁ¦Àû ¹ßÀüÀÌ ¼öÀÚ¿ø °í°¥À̶ó´Â ¸Æ¶ô¿¡¼­ ÁøÇàµÇ°í ÀÖ´Ù´Â Á¡À̸ç ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ Ãß¼¼°¡ Áö¿ª ±¹°¡µé °£ÀÇ °ü°è¸¦ °áÁ¤ÇÒ °ÍÀ̶ó°í ÁöÀûÇß´Ù. ¹° °¡¿ë¼º Ãø¸é¿¡¼­ ±¹Á¦ ºÐ·ù¿¡ µû¸£¸é ¹° ºÎÁ· ±¹°¡ ¹üÁÖ¿¡ ¼ÓÇÑ´Ù(1õ700°³ ±âÁØÀ¸·Î ¿¬°£ 1õ405§©). EDB ºÐ¼®°¡µéÀº Áß¾Ó ¾Æ½Ã¾Æ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÇöÀçÀÇ ¿Â°ÇÇÑ ½Ã³ª¸®¿À¸¦ µû¸£¸é ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ Ãß¼¼°¡ Àå±âÀûÀ¸·Î °è¼ÓµÉ °ÍÀ̶ó°í ÁÖÀåÇÑ´Ù.

 

The investment projects planned for the next decade are expected to help avoid power shortages in the region despite increased consumption. The region¡¯s surplus electricity production will go up from 37.2 TWh in 2020 to 45.6 TWh in 2030, which will make it possible to export more electricity and will raise the question of where to market the surplus supplies.

 

In all the Central Asian countries, the identified investment projects are mostly aimed at meeting the needs of the national economy and do not necessarily factor in regional interests, which is a consequence of the uncoordinated development of the water and energy complex. Promoting cooperation in Central Asia¡¯s water and energy complex would improve the region¡¯s water and energy balance and optimise the amount and structure of investments.

 

The report notes that the distinctive feature of the Central Asian countries in the Aral Sea basin is that their socio-economic development is taking place in the context of depleting water resources, and this trend will determine relations among the region¡¯s countries. In terms of water availability, they are in the category of water-stressed countries according to the international classification (1,405 cubic meter per person per year with a threshold of 1,700). EDB analysts argue that following the current moderate scenario for Central Asia this trend will continue in the longer term.


 [±×¸² 4] ¾Æ¶öÇØ À¯¿ªÀÇ ¼öÀÚ¿ø ¹× ÅäÁö ÀÚ¿ø ÀÌ¿ë ÇöȲ

 

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¡ØÂü°í : ¿¹»ó ÃÑ Ãë¼ö·®Àº ÇÏ¡¤Æó¼ö ¹× ¹è¼öÀÇ Àç»ç¿ë, ÇØ´ç Áö¿ª ±¹°¡ÀÇ ¹Ì·¡ µµ½ÃÈ­ Ãß¼¼ ¹× ±âÈĺ¯È­¸¦ °í·ÁÇÏ¿© °è»êµÊ.

¡ØÃâó : ¼öÀÚ¿ø Á¶Á¤À» À§ÇÑ ÁÖ°£À§¿øȸ °úÇÐÁ¤º¸¼¾ÅÍ(Scientific Information Centre of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination ;SIC ICWC). 


 EDBÀÇ ºÐ¼®°¡µéÀº Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ Áö¼Ó°¡´ÉÇÑ »çȸ°æÁ¦Àû °³¹ß ¸ñÇ¥ ´Þ¼ºÀÌ ¼öÀÚ¿ø »óÅ¿¡ Å©°Ô Á¿ìµÉ °ÍÀ̶ó°í °á·ÐÁö¾ú´Ù. EDB¿Í EFSD ¼ö¼® ÀÌÄÚ³ë¹Ì½ºÆ®ÀÎ ¿¡ºê°Ô´Ï ºñ³ëÄí·ÎÇÁ(Evgeny Vinokurov)´Â ¡°Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ ¹° ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö º¹ÇÕ´ÜÁöÀÇ ¿¡³ÊÁö ºÎ¹®ÀÇ Áö¼Ó °¡´É¼º¿¡ ´ëÇÑ µµÀü °úÁ¦´Â ¹«¼öÈ÷ ¸¹À¸¸ç ÀÌ Áö¿ªÀÇ °¢ ±¹°¡´Â ÀÌ¿¡ ´ëÀÀÇÒ ÀÚü ¼Ö·ç¼ÇÀ» ã°í ÀÖ´Ù¡±°í ¸»Çß´Ù. 


¿¡ºê°Ô´Ï ºñ³ëÄí·ÎÇÁ´Â ±×·¯³ª ¡°Áß¾Ó ¾Æ½Ã¾ÆÀÇ ¹° ¹× ¿¡³ÊÁö º¹ÇÕ ´ÜÁöÀÇ ÁÖ¿ä °úÁ¦´Â Áõ°¡ÇÏ´Â ¼öÀÚ¿ø ºÎÁ·°ú °ü·ÃÀÌ ÀÖÀ» °ÍÀÌ´Ù. Á߾ӾƽþÆÀÇ ¹° »ç¿ëÀº Àα¸ Åë°èÇÐÀû ¿äÀΰú Á¦Á¶¾÷ ¹× ³ó¾÷ÀÇ ¹ßÀü, ÁÖ·Î °ü°³ Áõ°¡¿¡ ÈûÀÔ¾î ºü¸£°Ô Áõ°¡ÇÏ°í ÀÖ´Ù¡±¶ó°í Áø´ÜÇß´Ù.

 

ÀÌ·¯ÇÑ ¸Æ¶ô¿¡¼­ Á¢°æÁö¿ª ÇÏõÀ¯¿ªÀÇ ±¹°¡°£ ¹° ¹èºÐ¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÇÕÀǸ¦ µµÃâÇÏ´Â °ÍÀº »çȸ¡¤°æÁ¦Àû, ȯ°æÀû º¯È­¿Í Áö¿ª Á¢°æ ±¹°¡ÀÇ Á¤Ä¡Àû »óȲÀ» ¸ðµÎ °í·ÁÇÑ Á¤Ä¡Àû ÀÇÁö¿Í Æ÷°ýÀûÀÎ ÇØ°áÀÌ ÇÊ¿äÇÑ ÇٽɰúÁ¦ÀÌ´Ù. °æ°è¼öÀÚ¿øÀÇ °øµ¿ÀÌ¿ë¿¡ ´ëÇÑ ÀÔÀåÀ» ¼ö·ÅÇÏ´Â ¸ñÀûÀº Áö¿ª ÀüüÀÇ °æÁ¦°³¹ß¸ðµ¨°ú °æÁ¦Çù·Â ÀÌ¿Ü¿¡´Â º¼ ¼ö ¾ø´Ù. Áö¿ª ±¹°¡ °£ ¹«¿ª°ú °æÁ¦ À¯´ë¸¦ °­È­ÇÏ°í ¹° Á¤Ã¥ÀÌ °æÁ¦ ÅëÇÕÀÇ À¯È¿ÇÑ ¿ä¼ÒÀÎ ±ä¹ÐÇÑ Çù·ÂÀº °øÀ¯ °æ°è ¼öÀÚ¿ø ¹®Á¦¸¦ ÇØ°áÇÏ´Â µ¥ ±â¿©ÇÒ °ÍÀÌ´Ù.

 

The Bank¡¯s analysts conclude that the achievement of Central Asia¡¯s sustainable socio-economic development goals will be largely dependent on the state of water resources. ¡°The challenges to the sustainability of the energy segment of Central Asia¡¯s water and energy complex are numerous, and each country in the region is looking for its own solution to counter them,¡± said Evgeny Vinokurov, EDB and EFSD Chief Economist.

 

¡°However, the key challenges in Central Asia¡¯s water and energy complex will be associated with the growing scarcity of water resources. Water use in Central Asia is growing rapidly, driven both by demographic factors and by the development of manufacturing and agriculture, primarily increased irrigation.¡±

 

In this context, reaching a consensus on inter-state water allocations in transboundary river basins is a key task that requires political will and a comprehensive solution, considering both socio-economic and environmental changes and the political situation in the countries bordering the region. The objective to converge positions on the shared use of transboundary water resources cannot be seen outside each country¡¯s economic development model and economic cooperation in the region as a whole. Strengthening trade and economic ties among the region¡¯s countries and their close cooperation, in which water policy is a valid factor of economic integration, will contribute to solving the problem of shared transboundary water resources.


¡á À¯¶ó½Ã¾ÆÀºÇà(EDB) ¼Ò°³
À¯¶ó½Ã¾Æ°³¹ßÀºÇà(Eurasian Development Bank ; EDB)Àº ¾Æ¸£¸Þ´Ï¾Æ, º§¶ó·ç½º, Ä«ÀÚÈ彺ź, Å°¸£±â½º°øÈ­±¹, ·¯½Ã¾Æ, ŸÁöÅ°½ºÅº µî ȸ¿ø±¹¿¡ ÅëÇÕ°ú °³¹ßÀ» ÃßÁøÇÏ´Â ±¹Á¦ ±ÝÀ¶±â°üÀÌ´Ù. EDBÀÇ Àü¼¼ ÀÚº»Àº ÃÑ 70¾ï ´Þ·¯ÀÌ´Ù. ÀÌ ÀºÇàÀº 2006³â 1¿ù¿¡ ¼³¸³µÇ¾úÀ¸¸ç Ä«ÀÚÈ彺ź ¾Ë¸¶Æ¼(Almaty)¿¡ º»ºÎ¸¦ µÎ°í ÀÖ´Ù. EDBÀÇ Æ÷Æ®Æú¸®¿À´Â ÁÖ·Î ¿î¼Û ÀÎÇÁ¶ó, µðÁöÅÐÈ­, ³ì»ö ¿¡³ÊÁö, ³ó¾÷, »ê¾÷ ¹× ±â°è °øÇÐ ºÐ¾ß¿¡¼­ ÅëÇÕ È¿°ú°¡ ÀÖ´Â ÇÁ·ÎÁ§Æ®·Î ±¸¼ºµÇ¾î ÀÖ´Ù.


The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is an international financial institution promoting integration and development in its member countries - Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Russia, and Tajikistan. The EDB's charter capital totals US $7 billion. The Bank was established in January 2006 and is headquartered in Almaty. The EDB¡¯s portfolio mainly consists of projects with an integration effect in the areas of transport infrastructure, digitalisation, green energy, agriculture, industry, and mechanical engineering.

 

¡á À¯¶ó½Ã¾Æ ¾ÈÁ¤°³¹ß±â±Ý(EFSD) ¼Ò°³
ÀÚ»ê ±Ô¸ð°¡ ÃÑ 85¾ï 1õ300¸¸ ´Þ·¯¿¡ ´ÞÇÏ´Â À¯¶ó½Ã¾Æ ¾ÈÁ¤È­ °³¹ß±â±Ý(Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development ; EFSD)Àº  ¾Æ¸£¸Þ´Ï¾Æ, º§¶ó·ç½º, Ä«ÀÚÈ彺ź, Å°¸£±â½º°øÈ­±¹, ·¯½Ã¾Æ, ŸÁöÅ°½ºÅº µî 6°³±¹ Á¤ºÎ¿¡ ÀÇÇØ 2009³â 6¿ù 9ÀÏ °°Àº ¼³¸³µÇ¾ú´Ù. EFSD´Â ȸ¿ø±¹µéÀÌ ±Û·Î¹ú ±ÝÀ¶À§±âÀÇ °á°ú¸¦ ±Øº¹ÇÏ°í, °æÁ¦Àû, ÀçÁ¤Àû ¾ÈÁ¤¼ºÀ» º¸ÀåÇϸç, ÇØ´ç Áö¿ªÀÇ ÅëÇÕÀ» ÃËÁøÇÏ´Â µ¥ µµ¿òÀ» ÁØ´Ù. EFSD ȸ¿ø±¹µéÀº EFSD ÀÚ¿ø°ü¸®ÀÚÀÇ ¿ªÇÒÀ» ºÎ¿©ÇÏ¿© À¯¶ó½Ã¾Æ °³¹ßÀºÇà°ú ±â±Ý°ü¸®ÇùÁ¤(Fund Management Agreement)À» ü°áÇß´Ù.

 

The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development(EFSD) amounting to US$8.513 billion was formed on 9 June 2009 by the governments of the same six countries. The EFSD assists its member states in overcoming the consequences of the global financial crisis, ensuring their economic and financial stability, and fostering integration in the region. The EFSD member countries signed the Fund Management Agreement with Eurasian Development Bank giving it the role of the EFSD Resources Manager.


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