[미얀마] 미얀마의 재생에너지 발전기술 현황 및 향후 전망에 관한 연구보고서
미얀마(Myanmar)가 문민지도자로 변화를 한지 3년이 지난 지금, 미얀마는 통상금지령의 해지와 기술의 급속한 수용 등을 이끌었다.
미얀마는 아직은 전기통신망과 전력망을 촉진하기 위해서 많은 노력을 기울이고 있다. 사실 미얀마 인구의 3분의 1만이 전기통신망과 전력망의 서비스를 사용하고 있다.
하지만, 인프라의 부족 역시 예상치 못했던 승인을 내놓고 있다고 전문가들은 말하였다: 재생에너지를 위한 백지상태. 이러한 개념은 미얀마가 환경적 파괴를 피할 수 있다는 희망을 고취시키고 있다. 거대한 에너지 관련 프로젝트들은 중국과 인도와 같은 이웃나라에서 왔다.
세계경제포럼 보고서(신에너지 건축: 미얀마)는 “천연자원과 에너지 자원을 갖고 있는 국가인 미얀마는 녹색적이고 탄력적이며 환경적 지속가능 개발을 위한 최적의 위치에 있다”고 밝히고 있다.
미얀마 전력부 장관에 따르면, 미얀마는 양곤(Yangon) 인구의 67% 그리고 맨달레이(Mandalay) 인구의 33%에 전력을 제공할 수 있을만큼의 충분한 발전능력을 가지고 있다.
하지만, 미얀마의 나머지 지역은 어둠 속에서 살아야만 한다. 이전 군부정부에 의해 체결된 계약서 하에 태국에 천연가스를 수출하고 있는 미얀마는 수년 동안 에너지 부족을 경험하여왔다.
미얀마에서 설치된 에너지 믹스(energy mix) 중 40% 이상이 활용가능한 여분의 부품의 부족과 방치로 인해 열외로 취급되어 왔다. 미얀마 전력부에 따르면, 전체 3.361GW 중 1.97GW의 운영이 남아있다. 이웃해있는 태국 ? 유사한 인구를 가지고 있음은 32.4GW의 설치용량을 가지고 있다.
미얀마의 경제는 이웃 국가들과 조금 비교되고 있다. 하지만, 글로벌 컨설턴트 기업인 McKinsey and Company사는 일곱 개 주요분야(예> 광산업/에너지 산업, 제조산업 및 여행업 포함)에서 연간 8%의 강력한 성장을 경험하고 있다. 연평균 15%의 수요 증가를 가지고 있는 이러한 성장은 발전용량의 거대한 확장(확대)을 필요로 하게 될 것이다.
작은 솔루션(solution)
재생에너지 지지자들은 중앙 전력망에서 떨어진 시골 지역에 설립되는 소규모 전력망을 위한 기회가 존재한다고 말하고 있다. 이를 우리는 미니그리드(minigrids)라고 명명하고 있으며, 태양광 발전기술, 바이오가스(biogas), 그리고 소수력발전기술 등에 의해 전력을 공급받고 있다.
라오스(Laos) 소재 Sunlabob 재생에너지 발전시스템 제공업체의 창업자이자 최고경영자인 Andy Schroeter 회장은 다음과 같은 언급을 하고 있다: 미니그리드는 미얀마에서의 개발을 촉진할 수 있는 수많은 혜택을 제안하고 있다.
여기에는 농업 제품에 가치를 추가하기 위해 냉장고와 푸드 프로세싱(food processing)을 사용하거나 보다 나은 시장 가격을 기다릴 수 있는 기회 등을 포함하고 있다. 뿐만 아니라, 그들은 지역 주민들에게 발전소 운영자들로서 직접적인 고용기회를 제공할 수 있다.
그리고 그들의 전력비용을 위해 지불해야 하는 필요성과 관련된 소비자들에게 교육을 할 수 있는 기회를 제공하고 있다. 초보 소비자들은 일반적으로 이러한 것을 꺼려하고 있다.
Schroeter 회장은 라오스와 다른 인근 국가들에서 일을 하는 십년 동안의 경험을 가져오고 있다. 그는 미니그리드 간 연결의 용이성을 말하고 있다. 이는 그것들에게 지역 전력망에 연결시키는 것을 가능하게 해주며, 실제 그것들을 향해 국가전력망을 당기고 있다. 그리고 완벽한 연결성을 재촉하고 있다.
분산형 재생에너지 미니그리드들은 잠재적으로 성장을 지속하고 있는 것처럼 보인다. 하지만, 많은 이들이 그것들을 보다 전통적인 에너지 발전설비가 건설될 수 있을 때까지 단기적인 솔루션으로서 판단하고 있다.
2013년 미얀마 에너지 투자 컨퍼런스의 사이드라인(sideline: 옆선)에 서있는 아시아(Asia)와 러시아(Russia) 수력발전기술 책임자인 Knut Sierotzki 국장은 다음과 같은 언급을 하였다. 그는 노르웨이 수력발전기술 컨설턴트 기업인 Poyry Energy Ltd사에서 아시아 및 러시아 수력발전기술 담장자이다.
“미니그리드는 좋은 대안이다. 하지만, 이는 미얀마의 전력화를 완전하게 해소할 수는 없을 것이다. 다른 외국 수력발전기업들과 함께 Poyry사는 미얀마의 급증하는 수력발전산업을 위한 기회를 추구하고 있다.”
[원문보기]
Myanmar's Struggle to Fix Its Failing Energy System and Embrace Renewables
Three years after Myanmar’s transition to civilian leadership led to the end of trade embargoes and a rapid embrace of technology, the country still labors under a barely functioning telecommunications network and a power grid that only reaches a third of the population.
But the lack of infrastructure also presents an unexpected blessing, experts say: a blank slate for renewable energy. This concept has raised hopes that the country can avoid the environmental devastation that big energy projects have brought to its neighbors China and India.
"A country endowed with natural and energy resources, Myanmar is in an optimal position for green, resilient, and environmentally sustainable development,’’ said a World Economic Forum report,
New Energy Architecture: Myanmar.
According to the Ministry of Electrical Power, Myanmar has enough generating capacity to power about 67 percent of Yangon and 33 percent of Mandalay, however most of the rest of the country remains dark.
Myanmar, which exports natural gas to neighboring Thailand under contracts signed by its former military government, has suffered an energy deficit for years.
More than 40 percent of Myanmar’s installed capacity across the energy mix has been sidelined due to neglect and a lack of available spare parts.
This leaves only about 1.97 gigawatts (GW) operational out of a total of 3.361 GW, according to the Ministry of Electrical Power (MOEP). Neighboring Thailand, with a similar population, has 32.4 gigawatts of installed capacity.
Myanmar’s economy is tiny compared to its neighbors, but global consultant firm McKinsey and Company sees strong growth as high as 8 percent per annum possible in seven key sectors, including mining/energy, manufacturing and tourism. With demand growing an estimated 15 percent annually, this growth will require a massive expansion in power generating capacity.
A Small Solution?
Supporters of renewable energy say that there is an opportunity for smaller electricity distribution networks to be established in rural areas off the central grid, dubbed “minigrids,” powered by solar, biogas and small-scale hydro where possible.
Andy Schroeter founder and CEO of Laos-based Sunlabob renewable energy systems provider says that minigrids offer a number of benefits that can drive development in Myanmar, including opportunities to use refrigeration and food processing to add value to agriculture products or just wait for better market prices.
They can also provide direct employment opportunities as plant operators to local villagers, and educate consumers on the need to pay for their electricity, which novice consumers are occasionally reluctant to do.
Schroeter brings over a decade of experience working in Laos and other frontier nations. He says ease of connectivity between minigrids, which allows them to link into regional grids, actually pulls the national grid towards them and hastens full connectivity.
Importantly, Schroeter is running a business, not an NGO, and Sunlabob guarantees Purchase Power agreements are implemented. To Myanmar’s power problem, “the only answer is minigrids,” says Schroeter.
Decentralized renewable energy minigrids seem to have growing potential, but many see them as short-term solutions until more conventional energy capacity can be built up.
On the sidelines of the 2013 Myanmar Energy Investment Conference, Knut Sierotzki, Director for Hydropower in Asia and Russia for Norwegian hydropower consultancy Poyry Energy Ltd, said that minigrids are “a good addition… but will not solve the electrification of the country.” Poyry, along with many other foreign hydropower firms, is looking for opportunities in Myanmar’s burgeoning hydropower industry.
Big Potential
Myanmar has huge potential for hydropower, up to 100 GW, according to the Ministry of Electric Power (MEP). Currently, 65 percent of Myanmar’s energy infrastructure is in hydropower, which generates over 70 percent of their energy supply, and this ratio looks likely to continue.
Hydropower is less attractive to environmentalists due to potentially massive impacts on local ecologies and societies, the high emissions involved in concrete making and pouring, not to mention potential methane build up in the water.
As a renewable, hydro is also subject to the seasons, generating large amounts of power during the rainy season but less — sometimes not enough — during the hot season, when the demand is highest and brownouts are common in Yangon.
Yet for cheap, consistent power, the government feels that hydropower is the best option. Deputy Director Tint Lwin Oo, of the Department of Hydropower Planning under the MEP, says that hydropower presented ‘‘a very good chance for us to get cheap load-direct power,’’ due to its low operating costs and free fuel.
He also notes that most of Myanmar’s hydro options are in the high mountains with very few people, “so they have a low social impact.”
Deputy Director Tint Lwin Oo of the MOEP said at least seven dams are nearing completion, adding 520 megawatts of installed capacity and capable of generating 2,387 megawatt hours of power. Another 24 projects are under investigation with the potential to add another 12 GW of installed capacity.
Mr. Tint Lwin Oo says that the government has another 30 GW of hydropower capacity under consideration. Meanwhile, the MOEP is looking to add 450 MW of natural gas fired capacity by 2015 to mitigate dry season hydro shortages.
A technical adviser to the Wildlife Conservation Society says he is guardedly optimistic about hydropower, noting that in areas of the Kachin state, sites being looked are steep gorges that if flooded, will have less impact on the environment.
“All dams will require tradeoffs and deep steep reservoirs are likely to destroy fewer habitats for animals and people compared to wide shallow reservoirs,” he notes.
Roadblocks Remain
But even if new sources of power come online quickly in Myanmar, significant obstacles remain. National policies on issues like environmental impact and social impact assessments have not been finalized.
The World Economic Forum report says the lack of ‘‘transparent institutional and legal framework for exploration, development and deployment of energy systems’’ is choking investment in renewables.
” Myanmar has a GDP of just over US$50 billion, compared to US$346 for Thailand. Myanmar’s poverty needs, along with the cost of fighting several insurgencies in the tribal areas leave little money available for renewable energy R&D.
"We have encountered many financial problems, so we can’t recruit, we can’t buy new equipment," said Win Khaing Moe, Director General for the Myanma Scientific and Technological Research Department under the Ministry of Science and Technology. Myanmar also suffers from a lack of trained personnel and certifiable data, according to the World Economic Forum.
Whether Myanmar will follow a green path toward a robust power grid remains to be seen. Outsiders are guardedly optimistic that Myanmar is sincere in its stated wish to develop sustainably. The US Embassy in Myanmar spokesperson noted that that they have seen “positive signs” that the government “is taking sustainability seriously.”
Back to Basics
But Mr. Min ultimately questions the entire value system that is being imported to Myanmar. He feels that this high energy, high consumption lifestyle previously little known in Myanmar is undermining the nation’s own perfectly functioning — and sustainable — lifestyle.
He feels that instead of focusing on big energy products that will benefit the ruling class in the capital city, Naypyidaw, he advocates for a more modest goal of using renewable energy to improve traditional lifestyles without fundamentally changing them. "They have been living like that for the last 2,000 years; it’s a good model," he said.
He says that entertainment, education, even health care can all be provided through low impact, renewable energy powered systems.
Imagine a grass hut on stilts above a rice paddy, surrounded by lush tropical rainforest, and complete with wireless connectivity and satellite TV, with a solar panel on the roof and maybe a rice husk gasifier in the yard; that’s some people’s idea of paradise
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