[IFPRI] 많은 나라에서 빠른 속도로 수질 악화되는 것으로 조사

국제식량정책연구기관(IFPRI)과 Veolia가 발표한 최근 연구에 따르면 많은 나라에서 수질이 급속히 악화되어가고 있는 것으로 조사됐다.

이 최초의 연구에서는 점점 증가하는 질소 및 인으로 인해 2050년에는 인구 3명 중 1명이 높은 위험 수준의 수질 오염에 노출될 것이라고 언급했다. 나아가 인구 5명 중 1명은 높은 수준의 생화학적 산소요구량(BOD)의 영향으로 심각한 수질오염으로 고통받을 것이라고 예측했다.

 

 

 

A new global study recently released by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Veolia, a specialist in optimized resource management, indicates that the planet is on a path toward rapidly deteriorating water quality in many countries. The first-of-its-kind study indicates that up to 1 in 3 people will be exposed to a high risk of water pollution in 2050 from increased amounts of nitrogen and phosphorous (N&P). Further, up to 1 in 5 people will be exposed to a high risk of water pollution reflected by increased levels of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD).

 

Even using the most optimistic socio-economic models, water quality is projected to rapidly deteriorate over the next several decades which, in turn, will increase risks to human health, economic development and thousands of aquatic ecosystems in developed and developing economies alike. The new study follows previous substantial research conducted by the two organizations, indicating that half the world's population (52 percent, or 4.8 billion people) -- approximately 49 percent of global grain production and 45 percent of total GDP ($63 trillion) -- will be at risk due to water stress by 2050, unless more sustainable water resource management practices are adopted.

 

"Globally, more people will be living in areas at a high risk of water pollution in 2050 due to increased loadings of pollutants," said Claudia Ringler, deputy division director of IFPRI's Environment and Production Technology Division. "Our study examined the effects of increased nitrogen, phosphorous and BOD as human population, agriculture activity and economic development accelerates. We also examined potential impacts through the lens of established climate change models. While these nutrients occur naturally in the environment and, in fact, help sustain aquatic life, too much of a good thing is bad. Already, too many people are exposed to high risks associated with these pollutants."

 

A major consequence of excessive N&P in waterbodies is eutrophication, when algae grow faster than normal, killing other aquatic life by depleting oxygen. In addition, the presence of nitrogen-based compounds in drinking water can be harmful to human health. High levels of nitrates can have particularly harmful effects on infants through the so-called "blue-baby" syndrome. Prolonged intake of high levels of nitrates by adults can also lead to gastric problems.

 

Ringler further explained that the study also demonstrates how water quality issues compound water quantity problems and amplify the need to simultaneously address both issues. The global study uniquely links and layers socio-economic projections, climate change predictions, and projections for agricultural production with biophysical water quality modeling developed by IFPRI and Veolia, the world's largest environmental and water company. Regions most affected by the studied pollutants (BOD and N&P) are densely populated with large agricultural production centers.

 

Ed Pinero, senior vice president of sustainability for Veolia, added, "The massive algal bloom in Lake Erie that triggered serious health concerns last year over safe drinking water is a very real example" (see "Toledo water resources contaminated by Lake Erie algae"). "When both water quantity and water quality are at risk, it's a recipe for even greater challenges because poor water quality further reduces the amount of available water." Pinero points out that while N&P are already a serious problem in many waterways, the study indicates that N&P loadings will increase substantially through 2050.

 

He further explained that as population grows and the quality of life improves, demand for water, food and sanitation will increase. "These demands, especially with growing urbanization, will lead to increased discharges of nitrogen, phosphorus and elevated levels of BOD," he said. "A polluted water source is almost like having no water resource due to the high chemical, energy and treatment costs associated with making that water available and useable again. The good news is that there are many solutions stemming from technology, best practices and social behavior that give hope to minimizing the adverse impacts."

 

Solutions exist that can improve both social and ecological resilience. Greater adoption of sustainable agricultural methods can help -- including enhanced nutrient-use efficiency, phased-out fertilizer subsidies, no-till or reduced tillage and other conservation measures, and closing the nutrient cycle. Sustainable solutions also exist for cities and industry, including more aggressive investment in wastewater treatment, increased recycling and reuse, green infrastructure, the establishment of markets for nutrient credit trading, governance models based more on watersheds and less on traditional political borders, and improved home design to minimize pollution.

 

[출처 = Water World / 2015년 4월 14일]